In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
Book Details:
- Author: Paul Goodwin
- ISBN: 9781119958796
- Year Published: 2009
- Pages: 472
- BISAC: BUS041000, BUSINESS & ECONOMICS/Management
About the Book and Topic:
In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
Decision Analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing the important aspects of a decision situation, for prescribing the recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected utility action axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision, and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker and other stakeholders. (Wikipedia 2008)
Explains decision analysis methods without using mathematical notation and tools that are beyond the scope of most business students and practitioners. Unrivalled in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. A new chapter brings together enhancements of the simple multi-attribute rating method (SMART) and alternatives, such as the AHP, Even-Swaps, and Macbeth. Chapter 2 now includes topics like decoy effects and the effect of emotions on decisions. The merits of snap decisions and choice architectures are assessed There is extended discussion of scenario planning, expert systems and linear models. New sections cover prediction markets, calibration of probabilities, and implementing the Delphi method. Includes new web material such as cases and multiple choice questions.
About the Author
Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioural Decision Making. George Wright is Professor of Management at the Business School, Durham University. He is the founding Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and an Associate Editor of two forecasting journals: International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting. He is also an Associate Editor of Decision Support Systems and a member of the editorial board of Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.