All management decisions should take uncertainty into account whether the implications are threats (risks) or opportunities. This book is about managing uncertainty in the managerial decision process of organizations. The aim is to help managers deal with uncertainty more effectively and more efficiently. Taking ten short stories based on case studies the book provides a rational model-based approach to decision making that will promote a better understanding uncertainty. This in turn will ensure that better management decisions can be made across a wide range of issues and contexts. By using a series of tales the reader is introduced to unfamiliar and complex ideas. Each chapter presents a tale about a common type of decision, based on real events. Each tale shows the development of an approach to decision making which both recognises and explores the presence of uncertainty. This highly engaging approach provides an underlying, strongly practical framework to the approaches described and clearly demonstrates the key concepts. The wide range of contexts explored includes buffers such as inventories, pricing decisions, aligning ‘buyer’ and ‘supplier’ motivation, safety decisions and precaution, discounting, security and formulation of strategy. A consistent and practical method is described throughout which can be applied to many decision and contexts. This book is vital for all those trying to manage effectively in uncertain times.
Book Details:
- Author: Chris Chapman
- ISBN: 9780470847909
- Year Published: 2002
- Pages: 514
- BISAC: BUS041000, BUSINESS & ECONOMICS/Management
About the Book and Topic:
All management decisions should take uncertainty into account whether the implications are threats (risks) or opportunities. This book is about managing uncertainty in the managerial decision process of organizations. The aim is to help managers deal with uncertainty more effectively and more efficiently. Taking ten short stories based on case studies the book provides a rational model-based approach to decision making that will promote a better understanding uncertainty. This in turn will ensure that better management decisions can be made across a wide range of issues and contexts. By using a series of tales the reader is introduced to unfamiliar and complex ideas. Each chapter presents a tale about a common type of decision, based on real events. Each tale shows the development of an approach to decision making which both recognises and explores the presence of uncertainty. This highly engaging approach provides an underlying, strongly practical framework to the approaches described and clearly demonstrates the key concepts. The wide range of contexts explored includes buffers such as inventories, pricing decisions, aligning ‘buyer’ and ‘supplier’ motivation, safety decisions and precaution, discounting, security and formulation of strategy. A consistent and practical method is described throughout which can be applied to many decision and contexts. This book is vital for all those trying to manage effectively in uncertain times.
*presents complex and unfamiliar ideas in an accessible and understandable way. *engaging writing style *practical and rigorous *based on real cases *written by well respected authors in the field
About the Author
CHRIS CHAPMAN is a Professor of Management Science in the School of Management of the University of Southampton. He was the founding chair of the Association for Project Management Specific Interest Group on Project Risk Management. He is a past president of the Operational Research Society and the current chair of the Committee of Professors in Operational Research. He is an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries. For more than 25 years his research interest has focused on risk and uncertainty management. Much of his research is consultancy based, giving him a broad spectrum of practical experience across a wide range of organizations, which he combines with a thorough conceptual understanding from which to write. He has authored and co-authored six books and more than 50 refereed papers. His books include Management for Engineers (Wiley 1987), Risk Analysis for Large Projects: Models, Methods and Cases (Wiley 1987) and Project Risk Management: Processes, Techniques and Insights (Wiley, 1997). STEPHEN WARD is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Management of the University of Southampton. He too combines his academic role with consultancy projects, and has published widely, including contributions to Management for Engineers (Wiley 1987) and joint authorship of Project Risk Management: Processes, Techniques and Insights (Wiley, 1997). He is the founding director of Southampton’s MSc in Risk Management.