Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploitinstability. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles No book canhelp you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensureyou’ll accurately predict economic turning points every time.But with Niemira and Klein’s Forecasting Financial andEconomic Cycles on hand, you’ll be able to significantlystrengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast importantfluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essentialbackground material on the characteristics and causes of economicvolatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical businesscycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined byleading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces drivinginstability–ranging from simple unicausal theories, morecomplex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. Inaddition, its concise review of America’s economic pasthighlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cyclesexperienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook,Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the fullspectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends,seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering youstep-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailingits uses and limitations. It goes on to show how you can adaptparticular techniques to assess, track, and predict: * Industry cycles–including an objective, tailor-madeforecasting tool * Regional business cycles–including a survey of regionalindicators * International business cycles–with an internationalbusiness cycle chronology * Inflation cycles–plus “12 little-known facts” about thiscomplex cycle * Financial cycles–covering credit, monetary, and interestrate cycles * Stock market cycles–with advice on achieving moredisciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience,Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as aninvaluable tool for practitioners like you whosedecision-making–and profit margin–depend on accuratelyassessing today’s often uncertain economic climate.”Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles provides a lively surveyof the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissectedand analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able toanticipate the next cyclical turn.” –Samuel D. Kahan ChiefEconomist Fuji Securities, Inc. “The definitive book on the mostimportant and enduring feature of an often mist-bound economiclandscape: the business cycle.” –Alfred L. Malabre, Jr.Economics Editor The Wall Street Journal “Niemira and Klein coverboth the theory of economic cycles and methods for forecastingthem. They provide one of the most comprehensive and currentreviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be foundanywhere.” –Anthony F. Herbst Professor of Finance TheUniversity of Texas at El Paso “This book succeeds as acomprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuationsin economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to allthose in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyzethe trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy.” –VictorZarnowitz Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance University ofChicago
Book Details:
- Author: Michael P. Niemira
- ISBN: 9780471845447
- Year Published: 1994
- Pages: 544
- BISAC: BUS044000, BUSINESS & ECONOMICS/Microeconomics
About the Book and Topic:
Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploitinstability. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles No book canhelp you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensureyou’ll accurately predict economic turning points every time.But with Niemira and Klein’s Forecasting Financial andEconomic Cycles on hand, you’ll be able to significantlystrengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast importantfluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essentialbackground material on the characteristics and causes of economicvolatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical businesscycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined byleading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces drivinginstability–ranging from simple unicausal theories, morecomplex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. Inaddition, its concise review of America’s economic pasthighlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cyclesexperienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook,Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the fullspectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends,seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering youstep-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailingits uses and limitations. It goes on to show how you can adaptparticular techniques to assess, track, and predict: * Industry cycles–including an objective, tailor-madeforecasting tool * Regional business cycles–including a survey of regionalindicators * International business cycles–with an internationalbusiness cycle chronology * Inflation cycles–plus “12 little-known facts” about thiscomplex cycle * Financial cycles–covering credit, monetary, and interestrate cycles * Stock market cycles–with advice on achieving moredisciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience,Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as aninvaluable tool for practitioners like you whosedecision-making–and profit margin–depend on accuratelyassessing today’s often uncertain economic climate.”Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles provides a lively surveyof the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissectedand analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able toanticipate the next cyclical turn.” –Samuel D. Kahan ChiefEconomist Fuji Securities, Inc. “The definitive book on the mostimportant and enduring feature of an often mist-bound economiclandscape: the business cycle.” –Alfred L. Malabre, Jr.Economics Editor The Wall Street Journal “Niemira and Klein coverboth the theory of economic cycles and methods for forecastingthem. They provide one of the most comprehensive and currentreviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be foundanywhere.” –Anthony F. Herbst Professor of Finance TheUniversity of Texas at El Paso “This book succeeds as acomprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuationsin economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to allthose in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyzethe trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy.” –VictorZarnowitz Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance University ofChicago
About the Author
About the Authors MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA is Vice President and Economist at Mitsubishi Bank in New York. Previously, he worked as an economist at Paine Webber, Chemical Bank, and Merrill Lynch. He regularly writes for Cycles, the magazine of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. His earlier work on industry cycles earned him the National Association of Business Economists’ A.G. Abramson award for an “outstanding contribution to the professional literature in the field of business economics.” PHILIP A. KLEIN is Professor of Economics at Pennsylvania State University and is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting. He has consulted on business cycle indicators for OECD, the EEC, and the World Bank. He has written widely on business cycles and has worked for many years with Geoffrey H. Moore. He is a Research Associate at the Center for International Business Cycle Research at Columbia University.